Based on the UNCTAD report published on 30 June 2021, the global GDP loss in 2020 and 2021 from tourism is estimated to be more than $4 trillion. All of us have been living with the fear of the pandemic for the last two years but I have not personally felt the experience of having COVID-19 myself.

On the morning of Chinese New Year Eve in 2022, it all changed. I woke up feeling feverish. My whole body felt weak and I was aching all over.

Source: My Oura ring

My Oura ring also sensed that during the night, my body temperature was higher than usual — and my resting heart rate spiked up to 56, higher than my usual of around 46-48 in the nights before.

By lunch, I decided to do an antigen home test and I discovered that I was clearly positive COVID-19.

I had been vaccinated two times with the Pfizer vaccine.

Despite being vaccinated, the symptoms during the first five days were pretty bad. My body felt really tired and the sore throat was horrible.

In the first five days, my body temperature is also consistently higher than my normal temperature by around 0.6 to 1.5 degrees.

My resting heart rate was the highest on the second day (February 1st) at 60 while my respiratory rate is higher than usual at 19 per minute with heart rate variability being very low at 22 ms.

By the sixth day, however, my sore throat and other symptoms slowly disappeared and my resting heart rate went back to 45 bpm.

By the ninth day, my HRV balance went back to an optimal level with my heart rate variability back to 53 ms.

Throughout the five days of symptoms, my oxygen saturation level was consistently above 97-98% and I was not in any real danger that required me to go to the hospital or get any oxygen supplementation.

I had likely gotten the Omicron variant which affects the throat more than the Delta variant. I had no loss in my sense of smell and taste, which happens more frequently with the Delta variant.

Based on The Lancet, it says that evidence suggests that the proportion of asymptomatic infections is much higher for Omicron at around 80-90%.

Although I was not part of the 80-90% who had no symptoms, I am glad I had one.

Having COVID-19 allowed me to have a better understanding on the impact I think it will have on the world and how it will relate to my investment outlook.

How does having COVID affect my investment outlook for 2022?

1. I think, first of all, having COVID-19 made me realize that after being vaccinated, although we can still have horrible symptoms, COVID-19 symptoms are still generally manageable and not life-threatening.

This means that COVID-19 is likely a manageable disease that can we can live side by side with.

This is also the case even with some of the elderlies I personally know (they have existing illnesses), age 55 and above. I see them having milder symptoms than me.

Of course, this does not apply to all and the best case is not having COVID-19 in the first place, but with Omicron being so contagious, I think all of us have to be prepared by minimally being fully vaccinated and being careful.

2. Countries will likely continue to re-open and the travel industry — especially for leisure travel — will likely rebound in 2022 as compared to 2021. The key metrics of opening up will likely move away from pure case numbers to hospitalization and death rates.

3. The pace of re-opening will vary by country but I think the consensus globally is that COVID is here to stay and countries are starting to re-open without even the need to quarantine.

For example, the recent announcement of the quarantine-free travel between Singapore and Bintan, Batam from February 25, 2022.

4. Along with the trend of normalization and re-opening, I think that more countries will announce throughout 2022 that they will lift any remaining COVID restrictions.

Such as the recent announcement by Norway that it is lifting almost all remaining COVID restrictions and they do not see COVID-19 as a major health threat to citizens anymore – despite Omicron still spreading in its nation.

5. In the US, Dr. Fauci said that the ‘Full blown’ pandemic could be ending soon. This means that the outlook in the US could be those of an endemic nature whereby there will be more people making their own decisions on how they want to deal with the virus — as well as decisions that will be made more on a local level rather than centrally decided or mandated.

6. With the trend of making COVID a part of our daily lives, I think that more events with no masks or vaccines requirement will be happening more often.

For example, recently Coachella announced that they will be returning with no masks or vaccines requirement. This is another huge step towards normalization.

In Conclusion

My view is that COVID will never be eradicated and instead, it will be a part of our daily lives and the demand for leisure events/travel will return to the pre-pandemic level in time to come.

Personally, I have a stake in the world’s biggest cruise operator, Carnival Corp as part of my outlook on the re-opening trade for this year.

As the Lancet journal’s recent article mentioned, COVID-19 will continue but the end of the pandemic is near.

With Omicron reaching a level of around 125 million infections a day in the middle of January 2022, it is likely that more than 50% of the world will have been infected with Omicron between November 2021 to the end of March 2022.

And after the Omicron surge has peaked, for some time to come, there will likely be a low level of virus transmission – and slowly but surely, my bet is more people will be more comfortable living together with COVID-19.

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