Reflections, 27 February 2024
Recession Fears and Value Investing: Navigating Uncertainty and Building Long-Term Wealth
Written by Chris Susanto,
Founder, Re-ThinkWealth.com and VIM
Who is this article for:
Investors who are worried about the possibility of a recession.
In the past year, the world has been grappling with a looming recession and high inflation.
There is a question of whether we will achieve a soft landing or will we not.
Amidst the uncertainty, one question remains prominent: How can investors navigate this environment and build long-term wealth?
Recession Tends to Be Cyclical
Yes, we may have a recession. Or we may not.
But it is crucial to remember that historically, economic downturns tend to be cyclical, not permanent. History shows that even after periods of economic contraction if humankind doesn’t give up, the market recovers and continues to grow over the long term.
In fact, as value investors, we should welcome economic downturns as opportunities to buy great companies that will emerge stronger in the future.
Value Investing is a Framework for Uncertain Times
Value investing is a time-tested strategy to identify stocks trading below their true value.
Strong companies, despite their solid fundamentals and future growth potential, may at times be overlooked by the market due to broader economic concerns. This gives value investors a buying opportunity to capitalise on the price discrepancy once the market realizes the company’s true worth.
In the face of recessionary fears, focus on fundamentals. Focus on strong companies that can weather downturns by having strong balance sheets, consistent earnings and cash flows and sustainable competitive advantage.
Having patience and a long-term perspective is paramount. While short-term fluctuations may be amplified during recessions, value investors focus on the company’s potential to deliver value in the long run, regardless of temporary (short-term hiccups).
Invest with a margin of safety. Buy companies at a discount to their intrinsic value. This gives us additional buffers to things that we have overlooked.
In conclusion, recession tends to be temporary, not permanent. By focusing on buying great companies within our circle of competence, we can increase our odds of building our wealth over the long-term.
Disclaimer:
The information provided is for educational and general information purposes only and is not intended to be personalized investment or financial advice. We make no promises as to the accuracy or usefulness of the information we present.
Important: Please read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure:
I/we have no stock, option, or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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About the writer
Chris Susanto is the Founder of Re-ThinkWealth.com. He is also a Board Member and Vice Chairman at Bansea and an Independent Director of Bansea Fund 2. Bansea, founded in 2001, is Asia’s oldest angel investment network.
Some of the places where Chris has been invited to speak or has added value as a mentor or writer include Singapore Polytechnic, SMU Institute of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (IIE), Seedly TV, Dollars and Sense, The New Savvy, Value Walk Blog, Investment Moats, NUS Tembusu College, NUS Investment Society, CGS-CIMB Singapore, Singapore Financial Conference by NTU IIC, The Financial Coconut Podcast, Money FM 89.3 and Internationally in Myanmar. He is also a part of the SMU BFI (Business Families Institute) network.
Chris also runs an investment education/coaching business called VIM/Value Investing Mentorship™. If you are interested in building your skills as a value investor, learn more about it here.
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